Clinton maintains Maine lead with CD2 too close to call

Clinton maintains Maine lead with CD2 too close to call

The fifth in a series of presidential tracking polls conducted for Beacon by the Maine People’s Resource Center finds Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton maintaining a statistically significant lead in Maine’s statewide vote, but locked in a close race with Republican nominee Donald Trump in Maine’s Second Congressional District.

Beacon tracking polls over time.

Beacon tracking polls over time.

Statewide, Clinton leads by seven points in a two-way race, according to the survey of 812 likely voters conducted from October 24th through 26th (with a statistical margin of error of 3.4%). In a four-way race, with third party candidates included, she leads Trump by a narrower four-point margin.

This advantage for Clinton is built on a double-digit lead in the First Congressional District. In the Second Congressional District, the two candidates are tied in a head-to-head matchup and Trump leads by three points in a four-way race (with a higher margin of error). A relatively large percentage of voters (9% in the statewide four-way race) remain undecided.

This split between congressional districts could lead to Maine dividing its electoral votes for the first time in state history, with Clinton winning three statewide and Trump winning one in CD2.

These results are similar to previous polls over the past several months showing Clinton generally leading statewide but tied or behind in CD2. The outcome on election day will likely depend on how undecided voters break, how heavy turnout is among supporters of each of the candidates and if third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein can maintain their combined double-digit share of the electorate.

See the full results here.


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