New tracking poll charts Trump’s gains in Maine

New tracking poll charts Trump’s gains in Maine

A new poll conducted for Beacon by the Maine People’s Resource Center shows significant gains for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in Maine over the last month, and especially in the Second Congressional District.

While Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton maintains a 45% to 40% lead statewide when the two major party candidates are compared head-to-head, Trump has closed a 10-point gap and moves into a virtual tie when third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are included in the survey.

Clinton leads in the First Congressional District by a 16-point margin in a head-to-head contest and by 10 points in a four-way race. Trump leads in the Second Congressional District by 5 points head-to-head and by 11 points in a four-way race with Johnson and Stein included.

The survey also shows that a statewide policy ensuring paid family and medical leave is broadly popular, earning the support of 75% of all voters and majority support among the backers of each of the four presidential candidates.

See the full results here. The survey of 835 likely voters was conducted from September 15th through 17th and has a statistical margin of error of 3.4%, 95 times out of 100.

Maine is one of two states which could potentially split its electoral votes by congressional district, but it hasn’t ever done so. If the four candidates maintain electoral support at these levels, Trump could win one or even three of Maine’s four electoral votes.

A comparison with Beacon‘s August tracking poll shows that Clinton has likely lost support to third-party candidates over the past month, while Trump has gained as Republican and conservative voters who were previously undecided are now expressing a candidate choice. Undecided voters have decreased from 15% in mid-August to 10% in mid-September.

Clinton has maintained her standing among women from the August poll, with most of her decrease in support, and most of Trump’s gains, occurring among male voters.

On state family medical leave, respondents were asked “Do you support a new statewide policy ensuring all workers can take paid time off to recover from a serious health condition, care for a family member with a serious health condition, or to care for a new child?”

The popularity of the policy illustrates why Clinton has campaigned on her national family leave policy for more than a year, and has made it a cornerstone of her outreach to women and young voters. Trump also recently announced a less-comprehensive and less-detailed leave policy for new mothers, breaking with decades of Republican opposition on the issue.

Photo: campaign video still of Donald Trump speaking in Bangor in June

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