Poll: Clinton leads by 10 points in Maine

A new poll released today by Beacon shows Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leading Republican nominee Donald Trump by a margin of 10 percentage points, 42% to 32%, with third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein together favored by 14% of the electorate and 13%  still undecided.

The survey of 841 likely voters was conducted from August 17th through 20th by the Maine People’s Resource Center and has a statistical margin of error of ±3.4%, 95 times out of 100.

Clinton’s margin widens slightly when the top two candidates are matched head-to-head. Clinton’s support is also stronger internally, with a larger proportion of her supporters saying they will definitely rather than probably vote for the former Secretary of State.

The race is closer in Maine’s Second Congressional District, which could potentially cast its single electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. Clinton leads by 4 percentage points, a smaller lead than she currently holds in polling averages of traditional swing states including Ohio and Florida.

While Clinton has a 6-point lead among independent voters statewide, a significant portion of her margin comes from consolidating the votes of members of her own party. In a four-way race, she wins 75% of voters who identify as Democrats, while Trump carries 63% of Republicans.

Clinton’s highest levels of support were found among liberals, women, voters with 4-year college or graduate degrees, and among both the youngest and oldest respondents. Trump’s highest levels of support were among conservatives, men,  lower-income, lower-education and middle-aged voters.

The timing of the poll, well after the conclusion of the Party conventions, increases its likely predictive ability, but other factors, including the difficulty of gauging the increased influence of third-party candidates, make for a more potentially volatile electorate.

While presidential polling has been relatively sparse in Maine, both the statewide and CD2 results from this survey are similar to previous surveys and electoral projections. See the full results of the survey here.