A quick request about this missive, my annual predictions column. If you don’t like who I predict, don’t blame the messenger. Use it as motivation to vote on Tuesday and bring five like-minded people with you to prove me wrong. There are a couple on here where I hope to be wrong and I will not take it personally.
So – here are my official predictions for Tuesday.
First up, let’s start with Congress. No surprise in CD1 where incumbent Democrat Chellie Pingree will romp in her re-match with retired 30 year army veteran Ron Russell. I expect her to win 60%-40%, which is a couple points better than when she beat Russell in 2024.
Moving west and north, I see former Democratic Secretary of State Matt Dunlap upsetting Republican former governor Paul LePage. While LePage has been the odds-on favorite since he entered the race, Dunlap has run a very smart and focused campaign. LePage left the state in shambles when he left the Blaine House, and people don’t want to go back. Dunlap will win by a point.
Moving statewide, let’s go to the governor’s race. Despite a late-breaking outlier poll claiming this race is neck and neck, it isn’t. Democrat Hannah Pingree will defeat Republican Bobby Charles by double digits, with independent Rick Bennett garnering only single digits. I project it will be Pingree 51%, Charles 40% and Bennett 9%.
On the US Senate seat, this one is tough. Maybe I have too much PTSD from 2020 when I had supreme confidence that Sara Gideon would win. Maybe I am playing reverse psychology with myself (and you). But I think Susan Collins is going to return for a sixth tour. Troy has done a great job in this campaign, rising to the challenge of the debates, raising the money needed to compete, and creating a ground game that is moving the needle. If he doesn’t win, he should be given whatever position he wants. Anywhere. But my best guess is that Collins wins 3 points. I hope the people prove me wrong.
Moving a little more locally, I do believe Democrats will hold the Maine House and Maine Senate. In the House I expect we will grow our majority to 81+ seats. In the Senate, to 21. That will give leadership the majorities they need to ignore corporate Democrats and move the progressive policy Gov. Mills continuously blocked.
In Cumberland County, we have a hotly contested race for District Attorney, but I think Democrat Jackie Sartoris will defeat Republican, disguised as unenrolled, Stephanie Anderson. As a side note, I think Anderson will also lose her re-election to the Cape Elizabeth Town Council.
There are also a bunch of local initiatives like banning flock cameras in York (which I believe will pass), an initiative to stop a solar array in Jay (which I believe will fail), to the six rent control initiatives I wrote about last week that I believe will all pass.
On the sad news front for local stuff, I think an initiative to gut a needle exchange program in Lewiston will pass. There is so much misinformation out there and these types of programs are getting hammered by conservatives. Lewiston will be worse off for it, with disease spreading more quickly and addiction becoming even less supported.
Last, but not least, let’s focus on the good news I see coming out of the US Congress and US Senate. I believe both will flip. I am not sure this will mean the end of the crisis that is the Trump Administration, as I am not sure he will care. Nor do I have the confidence that Democrats will be smart enough and bold enough to meet the moment. However, no doubt flipping both will slow MAGA’s roll and begin our path back to sanity. I put the House at 232 Dem seats and the Senate at 52 Dems (just enough to prevent Fetterman from flipping it back).
There it is. All in all, Tuesday is going to be a good day for Maine and a good day for the country. Be sure to vote.
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